000
ABPZ20 KNHC 181148
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Aug 18 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99):
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles off the 
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing showers and thunderstorms 
that continue to show signs of organization. Recently-received 
microwave satellite imagery also suggests the system is developing a 
well-defined center, and if these trends continue, a tropical 
depression is likely to form as soon as later today. The system is 
forecast to move west-northwestward at about 10 to 15 mph across the 
central portion of the eastern Pacific during the next several 
days. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Western Portion of the East Pacific:
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms are associated with a broad 
trough of low pressure located well west-southwest of the southern 
tip of the Baja California peninsula.  This system is forecast to 
interact with another disturbance to its west-southwest over the 
next several days, which could limit additional development if this 
system does not become the dominant disturbance. Regardless, a 
tropical depression could still form during the middle part of the 
week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward over the 
western portion of the East Pacific basin before it possibly merges 
with the disturbance currently located further west. Information on 
this system's development can also be found in the Tropical Weather 
Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Well Southeast of the Hawaiian Islands:
Another area of low pressure located well southeast of the Hawaiian 
Islands is currently associated with some disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms on its western side. This disturbance is forecast to 
interact with the disturbance located to its east. If this system 
becomes the dominant disturbance, some gradual development is 
possible and a tropical depression could form by the middle part of 
this week while it initially moves slowly over the western portion 
of the East Pacific.  A faster west-northwestward motion into the 
Central Pacific basin is likely by the latter portion of the week. 
Information on this system's development can also be found in the 
Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Eastern and Central Portion of the East Pacific:
Yet another area of low pressure could form well to the south of the 
southwestern coast of Mexico over the next few days. Environmental 
conditions appear generally conducive for some slow development of 
this system thereafter as it moves slowly west-northwestward 
throughout the week into the Central portion of the East Pacific 
basin. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
The Tropical Weather Outlook for the Central Pacific basin can be 
found under AWIPS header HFOTWOCP and WMO header ACPN50 PHFO and on 
the web at hurricanes.gov

$$
Forecaster Papin/Cangialosi