000
ABPZ20 KNHC 041139
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Aug 4 2024

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Carlotta, located several hundred miles to the west-southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and on Tropical Storm 
Daniel, located more than one thousand miles to the west-southwest 
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. 

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP96):
Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased with a broad area of 
low pressure located a few hundred miles south of southwestern 
Mexico. Environmental conditions remain conducive for gradual 
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the 
next day or two while the system moves generally west-northwestward 
at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of the coast of Mexico. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South-Southwest of the Baja California Peninsula (EP97):
Shower and thunderstorm activity is showing signs of organization 
with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles to the 
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California 
peninsula. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development 
over the next day or two, and a tropical depression is likely to 
form during that time while the system meanders within weak steering 
currents. Thereafter, the system is forecast to interact with the 
disturbance (EP96) to its southeast, which should limit the chances 
of further development afterwards.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Daniel are issued under      
WMO header WTPZ34 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Daniel are issued under     
WMO header WTPZ24 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Papin/D. Zelinsky