000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171709
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 17 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP90):
Satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms 
associated with an area of low pressure located a few hundred miles 
offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico have become better 
organized this morning. If these trends continue, advisories will 
likely be initiated on this system as a tropical depression or 
tropical storm later today. Additional information on this system, 
including gale and storm warnings, can be found in High Seas 
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

South of Guatemala and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coasts of 
Guatemala and southern Mexico in a couple of days. Gradual 
development of the disturbance is expected, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend 
while the system meanders over the far eastern portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php 

$$
Forecaster Kelly