000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171143
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Oct 17 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
located a few hundred miles offshore of the southwestern coast of 
Mexico are gradually becoming better organized, but the low still 
does not have a well-defined center.  Environmental conditions are 
conducive for further development of this system, and a tropical 
depression is very likely to form later today or tonight.  This 
system is expected to move slowly west-northwestward and then turn 
northwestward or northward late in the week offshore of the coast 
of southwestern Mexico. Additional information on this system, 
including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued 
by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Guatemala and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coasts of 
Guatemala and southern Mexico in a couple of days.  Gradual 
development of the disturbance is expected, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form late this week or over the weekend 
while the system meanders over the far eastern portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php 

$$
Forecaster Kelly