000
ABPZ20 KNHC 162330
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Oct 16 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP90):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
located a few hundred miles offshore of the southwestern coast of 
Mexico continue to show signs of organization.  Environmental 
conditions are conducive for further development of this system, and 
a tropical depression is very likely to form within the next day or 
so.  This system is expected to move slowly west-northwestward and 
then turn northwestward and northward late in the week offshore of 
the coast of southwestern Mexico. Additional information on this 
system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas Forecasts 
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Guatemala and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coasts of 
Guatemala and southern Mexico in a few days.  Gradual development 
of the disturbance is expected, and a tropical depression 
is likely to form late this week or over the weekend while the 
system meanders over the far eastern portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service
can be found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 
KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php 

$$
Forecaster Pasch