000
ABPZ20 KNHC 161139
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Oct 16 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP90):
A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles offshore 
of the southwestern coast of Mexico is producing showers and 
thunderstorms and is gradually becoming better organized.  
Environmental conditions are conducive for further development of 
this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the 
next day or two.  This system is expected to move slowly westward 
and then turn northwestward late in the week offshore of the coast 
of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Guatemala and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coasts of 
Guatemala and southern Mexico in a few days. Gradual development of 
the disturbance will be possible, and a tropical depression could 
form late this week or over the weekend while the system meanders 
over the far eastern portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly