000
ABPZ20 KNHC 152318
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Oct 15 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure is producing disorganized shower and 
thunderstorm activity extending several hundred miles south of the 
southern coast of Mexico.  Environmental conditions are conducive 
for development of this system, and a tropical depression is 
expected to form in a few days while moving slowly westward and then 
northwestward well offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of Guatemala and Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coasts of 
Guatemala and southern Mexico by the middle of the week.  Gradual 
development of the disturbance will be possible, and a tropical 
depression could form late this week as the system meanders over 
the far eastern portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg