000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151730
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Oct 15 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms located southwest of the Gulf of 
Tehuantepec are associated with a trough of low pressure.  This 
system is forecast to move slowly westward to west-northwestward, 
and an area of low pressure is expected to form several hundred 
miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico in a day or two. 
Further development of the system is likely, and a tropical 
depression is expected to form during the middle to latter part of 
the week while the system meanders well offshore of the coast of 
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

South of Guatemala and El Salvador:
An area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coasts of 
Guatemala and El Salvador by the middle of the week. Gradual 
development of the disturbance will be possible, and a tropical 
depression could form late this week as the system meanders over 
the far eastern portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Kelly