000
ABPZ20 KNHC 021739
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Mon Oct 2 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

South of Southwestern Mexico (EP98):
A broad area of low pressure is located several hundred miles south 
of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Although shower and 
thunderstorms associated with this system continue to show signs of 
organization, recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that it is 
poorly organized at the surface. Environmental conditions are 
expected to remain favorable for development, and a tropical 
depression is still expected to form during the next day or so. The 
system is forecast to move west-northwestward today, and then 
meander northwestward to north-northwestward through the end of the 
week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...near 100 percent.

South of Central America:
An area of low pressure is expected to form a few hundred miles 
south of the coast of Central America during the second half of this 
week. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for at 
least gradual development of the disturbance after it forms, and a 
tropical depression could develop late this week or over the weekend 
while the system moves slowly westward or west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky