000
ABPZ20 KNHC 131138
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sun Aug 13 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Fernanda, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the 
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. 

Western East Pacific (EP99): 
Satellite wind data indicate the circulation associated with an area 
of low pressure located about 1500 miles east-southeast of the 
Hawaiian Islands is gradually becoming better defined. Although its 
shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized, environmental 
conditions appear conducive for further development of this system. 
A tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of 
days as it moves westward or west-northwestward at about 10 mph over 
the far western portion of the basin, and then crosses into the 
Central Pacific basin late tonight.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers 
and thunderstorms over the far eastern portion of the east Pacific. 
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development during the 
next several days, and a tropical depression is expected to form by 
midweek while the system moves generally west-northwestward, roughly 
parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Fernanda are issued under WMO header WTPZ32 
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP2. 
Forecast/Advisories on Fernanda are issued under WMO header WTPZ22 
KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP2. 

$$
Forecaster Reinhart