000
ABPZ20 KNHC 121145
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Aug 12 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Central East Pacific (EP98):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in 
association with an area of low pressure located several hundred 
miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. 
However, satellite-derived wind data from overnight indicated that 
the system did not yet have a well-defined center of circulation.  
Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development of 
this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form during 
the next day or two while it moves westward or northwestward at 
about 10 mph across the central portion of the basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Western East Pacific: 
A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is 
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms 
well to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands.  Conditions 
appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical 
depression is likely to form during the next few days while moving 
toward the west or west-northwest at about 10 mph across the far 
western portion of the basin, crossing into the Central Pacific 
basin late Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Off the Coast of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central 
America and the southern coast of Mexico in a couple of days from 
a tropical wave currently moving across the southern portion of 
Central America.  Environmental conditions are expected to be 
conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression 
is likely to form during the early or middle part of next week while 
it moves generally west-northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast 
of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Hagen