000
ABPZ20 KNHC 311138
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Mon Jul 31 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Offshore of Southern Mexico (EP96):
Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization in 
association with an area of low pressure located a couple of hundred 
miles to the south of the southern coast of Mexico. Environmental 
conditions appear generally favorable for development, and a 
tropical depression is likely to form over the next day or two while 
the system moves generally westward near 15 mph, moving further away 
from the Mexican coast. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

Central East Pacific:
A small area of low pressure located about 1100 miles southwest of 
the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula continues to 
produce an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. 
Conditions do not appear to be conducive for development of this 
system while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph during the next 
couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form late this week a few hundred 
miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico.  Some gradual 
development is possible by the upcoming weekend while the system 
moves west-northwestward or northwestward, roughly parallel to the 
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin