000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151132
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Sep 15 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Southwest of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles southwest of 
Manzanillo, Mexico, continues to produce disorganized showers and 
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are forecast to become more 
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to 
form within the next couple of days. This disturbance is forecast to 
meander off the southwestern coast of Mexico through the end of this 
week, and then begin to move northwestward early next week. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Near the Coast of Southern Mexico:
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
located off the southern coast of Mexico are beginning to show 
signs of organization.  Additional development of this system is 
expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the 
next day or so.  The disturbance is forecast to move northwestward, 
possibly moving inland along the southern coast of Mexico this 
weekend.  Interests in that area should monitor the progress of 
this system. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. 

$$
Forecaster Brown