000
ABPZ20 KNHC 122330
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Sep 12 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Southwest of southwestern Mexico:
Shower activity associated with a small area of low pressure 
located a few hundred miles southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico has 
become a little better organized since yesterday. Although 
environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, some 
additional gradual development is possible during the next day or 
two. The system is forecast to move little through midweek, then 
merge with the disturbance to its east shortly thereafter. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Near the coast of southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure located along the coast of southern Mexico 
is producing disorganized cloudiness and showers. This system is 
forecast to interact and merge with the disturbance off the 
southwestern coast of Mexico around midweek, and environmental 
conditions are expected to become more conducive for development 
by that time.  A tropical depression is likely to form during the 
latter part of this week while the system moves slowly westward near 
the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent. 

$$
Forecaster Beven