000
ABPZ20 KNHC 221733
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sun Aug 22 2021

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure 
located about 100 miles west of the coast of west-central Mexico are 
becoming better organized.  Environmental conditions are expected to 
be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is 
likely to form later today or on Monday while the system moves 
westward at 10 to 15 mph, away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of the coast of 
southern Mexico early next week.  Environmental conditions are 
expected to be conducive for some gradual development thereafter, 
and a tropical depression could form by mid-week.  The system is 
forecast to move generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, near 
or just offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. 
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts