000
ABPZ20 KNHC 112332
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Aug 11 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Elida, located a few hundred miles west of the southern tip of the 
Baja California peninsula.

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the area of low pressure 
located about 1300 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja 
California peninsula remains elongated. The associated shower and 
thunderstorm activity is currently disorganized, but environmental 
conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, 
and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few 
days.  The system is not expected to move as quickly westward as 
originally forecast, and a slower westward to west-northwestward 
motion is now anticipated over the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A large area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low 
pressure extends from just west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec 
southwestward for several hundred miles.  Environmental conditions 
appear conducive for gradual development over the next several days, 
and this system will likely become a tropical depression by late 
this week while it moves generally west-northwestward away from the 
coast of southwest Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Another area of low pressure is expected to form in a few days over 
the far eastern portion of the basin to the south of the coast of 
Central America. Conditions are expected to be conducive for 
development, and a tropical depression could form this weekend while 
it moves generally west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

Another area of disturbed weather is forecast to form over the far 
western portion of the eastern Pacific basin within the next couple 
of days. Some subsequent gradual development of this system is 
possible later this week while the system moves slowly westward 
into the central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown