000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191731
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Octave, located over the southwestern portion of the
eastern Pacific basin.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located near
the west-central coast of Mexico is associated with a weak low
pressure area embedded within an elongated surface trough.  Some
development of this system is possible before it moves inland over
west-central Mexico and dissipates by late Sunday.  Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall associated with this disturbance could
produce flash flooding and mudslides across portions of Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco, especially in areas of mountainous terrain,
during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms have increased near a small low pressure
system located over the far southwestern portion of the eastern
Pacific basin.  However, any further development is expected to be
slow to occur while the system drifts slowly westward at about 5
mph.  This system is expected to move into the central Pacific
basin by late Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg