000
ABPZ20 KNHC 191137
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Oct 19 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
downgraded Tropical Depression Octave, located over the southwestern
portion of the eastern Pacific basin.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located near
the west-central coast of Mexico is associated with a weak low
pressure area embedded within an elongated surface trough.  Some
development of this system is possible before it moves inland over
west-central Mexico and dissipates by late Sunday.  Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall associated with this disturbance could
produce flash flooding and mudslides across portions of Michoacan,
Colima, and Jalisco, especially in areas of mountainous terrain,
during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A small low pressure system located over the far southwestern
portion of the eastern Pacific basin is producing limited shower and
thunderstorm activity.  Development, if any, will be slow to occur
while the system drifts slowly westward at about 5 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg