000
ABPZ20 KNHC 190507
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Octave, located over the southwestern portion of the eastern
Pacific basin.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is located
near the west-central coast of Mexico. A weak low pressure system is
expected to develop near the coast by Saturday night and some slight
development is possible before the system moves inland and
dissipates by late Sunday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall
associated with this disturbance could produce flash flooding and
mudslides across portions of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco,
especially in areas of mountainous terrain, during the next few
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A small low pressure system located over the far southwestern
portion of the East Pacific basin is producing limited shower and
thunderstorm activity.  Development, if any, will be slow to occur
while the system drifts westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto