000
ABPZ20 KNHC 182338
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Oct 18 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Octave, located over the southwestern portion of the eastern
Pacific basin.

An elongated area of disturbed weather is located near the
west-central coast of Mexico. A weak low pressure system is expected
to develop near the coast on Saturday and some slight development is
possible before the system moves inland and dissipates by late
Sunday. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall associated with
this disturbance could produce flash flooding and mudslides across
portions of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco, especially in areas of
mountainous terrain, during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

A small low pressure system has developed over the far southwestern
portion of the East Pacific basin.  Although the low is currently
producing no organized shower or thunderstorm activity,
environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for
development over the weekend, and some slow development is possible
while the system drifts westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky