000
ABPZ20 KNHC 152315
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Oct 15 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located about 80 miles south of coast of the Mexico/Guatemala
border are beginning to show signs of organization.  Environmental
conditions are conducive for development of this system, and a
tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form tonight or
early Wednesday while the system moves west-northwestward at
about 10 mph, toward the coast of southeastern Mexico.  Regardless
of development, heavy rainfall currently occurring across El
Salvador and Guatemala is forecast to spread westward over
southern Mexico later tonight and Wednesday.  These rains could
cause flooding and mudslides, especially in mountainous areas.
A Tropical Storm Watch or Warning could be required for a portion
of the southeastern coast of Mexico tonight or early Wednesday.
Interests in those areas should should monitor the progress of
this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms located about
1200 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is associated with a trough of low pressure.  Some
gradual development of this system is possible during the next few
days while the system moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown