000
ABPZ20 KNHC 151731
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Oct 15 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated during the
past several hours near an elongated area of low pressure located
about 100 miles south-southwest of the coast of Guatemala.
Environmental conditions are conducive for development of this
system, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to
form tonight or on Wednesday while the system moves
west-northwestward at about 10 mph, toward the coast of southeastern
Mexico.  Regardless of development, heavy rainfall currently
occurring across Costa Rica, Nicaragua, Honduras and El Salvador is
forecast to spread westward over Guatemala tonight, and across
southern Mexico on Wednesday.  These rains could cause flooding and
mudslides, especially in mountainous areas. Interests in
southeastern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered
about 1200 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula is associated with a surface trough of low
pressure.  Some development of this system is possible during the
next few days while the system moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Roberts