000
ABPZ20 KNHC 130506
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Oct 12 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Satellite images indicate that the circulation of a low pressure
area a few hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula remains elongated, and the system does not have
a well-defined center.  In addition, the associated shower and
thunderstorm activity is still not well organized.  Although the
window of opportunity for development is decreasing, a tropical
depression could still form on Sunday while the system moves
northward at 5 to 10 mph.  By Sunday night or Monday, however,
additional development is not expected due to cooler waters and
stronger upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

A broad area of low pressure is forming a couple of hundred miles
west of the the coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica.  Gradual
development of this system is possible over the next several days,
and a tropical depression could form by midweek while it moves
west-northwestward at about 10 mph near or just off the coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi