000
ABPZ20 KNHC 120543
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Oct 11 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of showers and thunderstorms centered several hundred
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula is associated with an elongated area of low pressure.
Satellite images suggest that the system is gradually consolidating,
and a tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or
so while the system moves northward at 5 to 10 mph.  By early next
week, however, additional development is not expected due to cooler
waters and stronger upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

An area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-southeast
of Acapulco, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms to the west of the center.  Strong upper-level winds
should limit development of this system during the next couple of
days while the low moves little.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast
of southeastern Mexico early next week.  Gradual development of
this system is possible after that time while it moves
west-northwestward off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi