000
ABPZ20 KNHC 112344
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Oct 11 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An elongated area of low pressure centered several hundred miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula
continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms.
This system has become a little better organized since yesterday,
and environmental conditions are conducive for additional
development.  A tropical depression is expected to form during the
next day or two while the system moves northwestward and then
northward at 5 to 10 mph.  Conditions will become less conducive for
additional development early next week when the system begins to
encounter colder waters and stronger upper-level winds.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

An area of low pressure has formed several hundred miles south of
the coast of southern Mexico.  While the associated thunderstorm
activity shows some signs of organization, environmental
conditions are not currently conducive for additional development.
This system is expected to move little during the next couple of
days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the eastern
Pacific south of the coast of southeastern Mexico early next week.
Some gradual development of this system is possible after that time
while it moves west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.


$$
Forecaster Beven