000
ABPZ20 KNHC 272327
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Fri Sep 27 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A rather large area of disturbed weather extends from Central
America westward along the southwest coast of Mexico.  A broad area
of low pressure is trying to form south-southeast of Acapulco in
association with this disturbance, but there is no evidence of a
well defined center at this time.  Environmental conditions are very
favorable for a tropical depression or a tropical storm to form
within this area of disturbed weather during the next day or so,
while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at about 10 mph
near the southwestern coast of Mexico. Interests along this portion
of the coast should monitor the progress of the disturbance, since
tropical storm watches or warnings could be required at any time on
Saturday.  Regardless of development, heavy rainfall, with the
possibility of flash flooding and mudslides, is expected near the
southwestern coast of Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form over the far
southwestern portion of the eastern North Pacific by early next
week.  Some gradual development is possible thereafter while the
system drifts slowly eastward or northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila