000
ABPZ20 KNHC 261741
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Sep 26 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure
located several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of
the Baja California peninsula has become a little better organized
since yesterday.  Some additional development of this system is
possible while it moves eastward and then southeastward during the
next couple of days, and a tropical depression could still form
before it becomes absorbed by a larger weather disturbance near the
coast of Mexico over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

An elongated trough of low pressure developing near the coast of
southern and southwestern Mexico is producing several clusters of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  A low is expected to
form along this trough during the next couple of days, and it is
likely to become a tropical depression over the weekend or early
next week while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10
to 15 mph near the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall, with the possibility of
flash flooding and mudslides, is likely along the Pacific coasts of
Central America and southern and southwestern Mexico during the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A low pressure area is expected to form over the weekend in the far
southwestern part of the east Pacific basin.  Some subsequent slow
development is possible into early next week as the low moves
slowly eastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven