000
ABPZ20 KNHC 260501
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Sep 25 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower activity associated with a broad area of low pressure located
several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California peninsula has decreased and become less organized
since the afternoon. Some development of this system is still
possible and a tropical depression could form while it moves slowly
northward or north-northeastward for the next day or so. The
disturbance is forecast to turn southeastward on Friday and
environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
further development at that time.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A broad area of disturbed weather is located over the far eastern
portion of the East Pacific basin. This system is expected to move
westward during the next day or two into a region of deep
southwesterly flow south of the southern coast of Mexico. A tropical
depression is subsequently likely to form over the weekend or early
next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph near the southern and southwestern coasts of Mexico.
Regardless of development, this system could cause heavy rainfall
over southern and southwestern Mexico through early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky