000
ABPZ20 KNHC 241749
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Tue Sep 24 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, which will move into the central Pacific basin this
afternoon.

A weak area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Significant development of this system is not
expected while it moves northward at 5 to 10 mph through Wednesday
and then becomes absorbed within a larger trough on Thursday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An elongated surface trough is expected to form within a couple of
hundred miles of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next
several days.  An area of low pressure is likely to form along this
trough, and it could become a tropical depression over the weekend
while moving slowly west-northwestward near the southwestern coast
of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Another area of low pressure could form several hundred miles
south-southwest of southern tip of the Baja California peninsula in
a day or two.  Some development is possible later this week while
the system moves slowly northward or northeastward.  This system is
likely to be absorbed over the weekend by the larger system that is
expected to develop near the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg