000
ABPZ20 KNHC 152332
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Sep 15 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Kiko, located several hundred miles west-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A broad area of low pressure centered several hundred miles
south of Manzanillo, Mexico, is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Some gradual development of this system is possible
during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form
around the middle of the week while it moves slowly
west-northwestward well offshore of the southwestern coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A large area of disorganized cloudiness and showers centered
several hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is associated
with a tropical wave.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form around the middle of the week as the system moves
west-northwestward near, or parallel to, the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi