000
ABPZ20 KNHC 130540
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Sep 12 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kiko, located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about 1600 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula remain disorganized.  Environmental conditions
do not appear particularly conducive for development of this system
while it meanders near its current location during the next couple
of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Another tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest
of Acapulco, Mexico, is also producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms, mainly to the west of the wave axis.  Some slow
development is possible into next week while the system moves
generally westward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form west of the coast of
Central America over the weekend.  Environmental conditions are
forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical
depression will likely form by the middle of next week while the
system moves west-northwestward parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Kiko are issued under WMO header WTPZ33 KNHC
and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.  Forecast/Advisories on Kiko are
issued under WMO header WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header
MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Berg