000
ABPZ20 KNHC 180530
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Aug 17 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala is producing a limited area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms tonight.  Environmental conditions are
expected to become more conducive for development by early next
week, and a tropical depression is expected to form by Tuesday while
the low moves west-northwestward at about 10 mph parallel to the
coast of Mexico.  Moisture associated with the low is forecast to
produce heavy rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions
of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southeastern Mexico during the next
few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave
located about 900 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the
Baja California has increased since yesterday.  Environmental
conditions continue to support slow development, and this system
has the potential to become a tropical cyclone by the middle of next
week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Another tropical wave, located about 1300 miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, is producing
cloudiness and showers.  Some development of this system is
possible during the next couple of days while it moves slowly
westward across the southwestern portion of the eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake