000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171147
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Aug 17 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala is producing some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form early next week while the low moves west-northwestward at about
10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico.  Regardless of development,
moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Central
America and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased in association with
a tropical wave located about 850 miles south-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  Some slow
development of this system is possible over the next several days
while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Another tropical wave located about 1300 miles west-southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.  Gradual development
of this system is possible during the next couple of days while it
moves slowly westward at about 5 mph across the southwestern portion
of the eastern Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg