277 
ABPZ20 KNHC 170522
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 16 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

An area of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles south of
the coast of Guatemala is producing some disorganized showers and
thunderstorms.  Environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form early next week while the low moves west-northwestward at about
10 mph parallel to the coast of Mexico. Regardless of development,
moisture associated with the low is forecast to produce heavy
rainfall and possible flash flooding across portions of Central
America and southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

A tropical wave continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms centered about 1250 miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.  Gradual development
of this system is possible during the next few days while it moves
slowly westward across the southwestern portion of the eastern
Pacific.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake