000
ABPZ20 KNHC 112159
TWOEP 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
300 PM PDT Sun Aug 11 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion of
the low-pressure system south of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula.

Thunderstorm activity associated with a low pressure system located
a few hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula have become a little better organized during the past
several hours.  In addition, recent satellite-derived surface wind
data indicate that the low has become better defined, with winds
just below tropical-storm strength occurring near and to the east
of the center.  If this recent development trend continues, then
advisories could be initiated on a tropical depression or a tropical
storm later this evening while the disturbance moves westward to
west-northwestward, away from the coast of Mexico. Environmental
conditions are expected to become unfavorable for significant
development on Tuesday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A disturbance located a little less than 1000 miles southwest of the
Baja California peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are expected to
become more conducive for tropical cyclone formation by the middle
of the week while the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart