000
ABPZ20 KNHC 102316
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Aug 10 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the
southwestern coast of Mexico is associated with a trough of low
pressure. This system has about a day or two to become a tropical
depression as it moves west-northwestward just off the southwestern
coast of Mexico.  After that time, conditions are forecast to become
unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. Regardless of
development, the disturbance will likely bring locally heavy
rainfall along portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during
the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A broad area of low pressure located a few hundred miles south-
southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico is beginning to merge with the
larger disturbance to its north. Development of this system is
becoming less likely.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An area of disturbed weather located a little less than 1000
miles south-southwest of the Baja California peninsula is currently
disorganized. However, environmental conditions are expected to
become more conducive for tropical cyclone formation by the middle
next week as this disturbance moves westward or west- northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila