000
ABPZ20 KNHC 270944
TWOEP 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
245 AM PDT Sat Jul 27 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion of
the area of disturbed weather to the southwest of the southern tip
of Baja California.

Updated:  Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with an area
of disturbed weather located about 1100 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula continues to
become better organized this morning.  If this trend continues, a
tropical depression or a tropical storm is likely to form later
today or tonight.  This system is expected to move westward to
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

An area of low pressure accompanied by disturbed weather is located
a few hundred miles south-southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical
depression is likely to form early next week while the system moves
generally westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Pasch