157 
ABPZ20 KNHC 182313
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jul 18 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Shower activity associated with a tropical wave located several
hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico is very limited
at this time. Environmental conditions could become a little more
more conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression
could form early next week before the system reaches cooler waters.
This disturbance is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward
at 10 to 15 mph, away from the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

A broad area of low pressure located more than 1000 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing an
elongated area of showers and thunderstorms. This system has not
become any better organized since yesterday, and the chances for
tropical cyclone formation appears to be diminishing. The low
is expected to move west-northwestward or northwestward at 10 to 15
mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila