000
ABPZ20 KNHC 300832
TWOEP 

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
135 AM PDT Sun Jun 30 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Special tropical weather outlook issued to update the discussion of
the low pressure area southwest of Mexico.

Updated:  Recent satellite wind data indicate that the area of low
pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the
southwestern coast of Mexico is producing tropical-storm-force
winds but the system currently lacks a closed surface circulation.
Showers and thunderstorms associated with the system continue to
show signs of organization and conditions appear conducive for the
formation of a tropical storm later today while the disturbance
moves westward to west-northwestward at about 15 mph.  For
additional information on this low see High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to form by the middle of next
week several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.
Conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system
while it moves westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

&&
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN02 KWBC.

$$
Forecaster Brown