000
ABPZ20 KNHC 171140
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Wed Oct 17 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Satellite-derived winds and surface observations indicate that an
elongated low pressure system has developed about 100 miles south of
Guatemala.  Although associated shower and thunderstorm activity is
currently disorganized, environmental conditions are expected to be
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression or a
tropical storm is likely to form during the next day or two.  The
system is forecast to moves generally toward the west-northwest at
10 to 15 mph, near or just offshore the coast of southern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A weak and nearly stationary area of low pressure located about 900
miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula continues to produce disorganized shower activity. Some
slow development of this system is possible while it drifts
northward or north-northeastward during the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart