000
ABPZ20 KNHC 160517
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Mon Oct 15 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Tara, located near the coast of southwestern Mexico.

A weak area of low pressure located about 850 miles south-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized shower activity.  Some slow development of this system
is possible while it drifts northward or north-northeastward during
the next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to develop a couple of hundred
miles south of Guatemala and the southeastern coast of Mexico by
late Wednesday.  Environmental conditions are forecast to be
conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to
form by the end of the week while the system moves west-
northwestward near the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown