000
ABPZ20 KNHC 140501
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Sat Oct 13 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A small low pressure system is located about 80 miles south-
southwest of Zihuatanejo, Mexico.  The associated shower and
thunderstorm activity has changed little in organization during the
day and has not persisted near the center of circulation due to
strong winds aloft.  However, upper-level winds are expected to
become gradually more favorable for development of this system
during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to
form early next week while the low moves slowly westward to
west-northwestward close to the coast of southwestern Mexico.
Regardless of development, heavy rains are possible along coastal
sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacan, and Colima
during the next several days, and interests in those areas should
monitor the progress of this system and refer to products issued by
the Mexican Meteorological Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

A low pressure area is forecast to develop a few hundred miles south
of the southeastern coast of Mexico around the middle of next week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat favorable for
development of the system while it moves generally westward,
parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg