000
ABPZ20 KNHC 132339
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Oct 13 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A well-defined low pressure system located about 80 miles south of
Zihuatanejo, Mexico, is still producing a small but concentrated
area of showers and thunderstorms near and just west of the center.
Upper-level winds are expected to become gradually more favorable
for development of this system during the next few days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form early next week while the low
moves slowly westward to west-northwestward close to the coast of
southwestern Mexico.  Regardless of development, heavy rains are
possible along coastal sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero,
Michoacan, and Colima during the next several days, and interests in
those areas should monitor the progress of this system and refer to
products issued by the Mexican Meteorological Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

A low pressure area is forecast to develop a few hundred miles south
of the southeastern coast of Mexico around the middle of next week.
Environmental conditions are expected to be somewhat favorable for
development of the system while it moves generally westward,
parallel to the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg