500 
ABPZ20 KNHC 182354
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Tue Sep 18 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms extending
from the southern Gulf of California and Baja California Sur
southwestward for a few hundred miles are associated with an
elongated area of low pressure.  The large size of the system and
land interaction should limit the development of this disturbance,
and it appears that the chances of a tropical cyclone forming
are decreasing.  Regardless of development, this disturbance will
likely produce very heavy rainfall over Baja California Sur and
other parts of northwestern mainland Mexico over the next few days.
Interests in Baja California Sur and northwestern Mexico should
monitor the progress of this disturbance.  Some of the moisture
from this disturbance is expected to spread northward into the
southwestern United States on Thursday and Friday, enhancing
rainfall potential in that area.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

Another area of low pressure is located about 800 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental
conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development
of this system during the next few days while it moves slowly
west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi