959 
ABPZ20 KNHC 181118
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Tue Sep 18 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad and elongated area of low pressure extending from near the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula southwestward for a
few hundred miles continues to produce widespread but disorganized
showers and thunderstorms.  Although environmental conditions appear
conducive for tropical cyclone formation, the large size of the
system and land interaction is expected to limit the development
potential of this disturbance.  However, this system could still
become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it
moves near Baja California Sur and the Gulf of California.
Regardless of development, this disturbance will likely produce very
heavy rainfall over Baja California Sur and other parts of
northwestern mainland Mexico over the next several days. Interests
in Baja California Sur and northwestern Mexico should monitor the
progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Another area of low pressure is located about 800 miles southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.
Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive
for some gradual development of this system over the next several
days while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown