475 
ABPZ20 KNHC 162325
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sun Sep 16 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

A broad and elongated area of low pressure centered a few hundred
miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is
associated with widespread but disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear conducive
for tropical cyclone formation, the large size of the system
suggests that any development should be slow to occur. This system
will likely become a tropical depression later this week while it
moves generally northwestward or northward at about 10 mph.
Interests in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of this
disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

A small area of low pressure located about 650 miles southwest of
the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Significant development of
this system is unlikely due to unfavorable environmental
conditions. This system is expected to move slowly west-
southwestward during the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

$$
Forecaster Landsea