892 
ABPZ20 KNHC 120502
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Sep 11 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Paul, located a little more than 1000 miles west of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

A trough of low pressure continues to produce disorganized showers
and thunderstorms extending several hundred miles west of the
west-central coast of Mexico.  Strong upper-level winds appear to be
preventing the system from becoming better organized, and
development, if any, is likely to be slow to occur while the system
drifts southwestward over the next couple of days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

An area of low pressure is expected to develop well south of the
southwestern coast of Mexico in a few days.  Some gradual
development is possible after that time while the system moves
generally westward to west-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky