809 
ABPZ20 KNHC 132310
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Mon Aug 13 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Showers and thunderstorms have continued to become more concentrated
near the center of a low pressure system located about 900 miles
south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California
peninsula.  Environmental conditions are conducive for gradual
development, and a tropical depression is expected to form during
the next 2 to 3 days while the disturbance moves westward at 10 to
15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

A broad low pressure area located about 1250 miles west-southwest
of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula is producing
showers and a few thunderstorms.  While this system is showing some
signs of organization, the low is forecast to reach cooler waters by
Tuesday afternoon, which would limit further development chances.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart