062 
ABPZ20 KNHC 041154
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Sat Aug 4 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Hector, located well southwest of Baja California Sur.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low
pressure centered about 825 miles south-southwest of the southern
tip of the Baja California peninsula continue to show signs of
organization. Environmental conditions are likely to support
additional development, and a tropical depression is expected to
form by early next week as the system moves slowly westward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A large area of disturbed weather centered several hundred miles
south of Acapulco, Mexico, has become better organized overnight.
Environmental conditions are conducive for signficant development,
and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form
within the next day or two while the system moves west-northwestward
off the coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

A tropical wave located a few hundred miles south-southwest of the
coast of Guatemala continues to produce disorganized shower
activity. Although this system has the potential to become a
tropical depression early next week, strong upper-level winds from
another disturbance to the west could prevent tropical cyclone
formation while the system moves westward or west-northwestward
south of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake