379 
ABPZ20 KNHC 192319
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Thu Jul 19 2018

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Satellite wind data indicate that the broad area of low pressure
located about 1400 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula has become less organized since yesterday.
Since the overall environment still appears to be conducive for
development, some gradual organization is possible during the next
few days while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms centered
several hundred miles southwest of Acapulco, Mexico, is associated
with a tropical wave.  Upper-level winds are forecast to become
increasingly favorable for development over the weekend, and a
tropical depression could form early next week while the system
moves westward at 10 to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

An area of low pressure is likely to form early next week several
hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico.  Conditions
appear conducive for some development of this system thereafter
while it moves westward or west-northwestward well south of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Blake